Odds for Next Pope: How to Bet, Candidates, and Surprises

Hours after this publication, white smoke was seen rising from the Sistine Chapel. The first American pope, Robert Prevost, was elected to the surprise of many. Betting houses reported that users could have made a fortune if they had bet on one of the least favoured candidates. The new pope has chosen the name Leo XIV, and his first public appearance as pope is expected to happen soon.

How to Bet on the Next Pope?

We’ve put together the best betting offers for UK punters. Just check the odds below and make your pick.

🎯 Bet on the New Pope With bet365

bet365 offer new punters to bet £10 and get £30 in free bets. Minimum deposit required. Free Bets are credited as Bet Credits and can be used once the qualifying bets have been settled. Minimum odds, bet exclusions, and certain payment methods apply. The stake of Bet Credits is not included in the returns. Time limits and full T&Cs apply.

🌍 NetBet’s Special Bet on the World’s Next Pope

NetBet offer new bettors £10 in free bet & 25 free spins when they place a £10 bet. Deposit and place a £10 bet on any sport with minimum odds of 1/1 (2.00), excluding system bets. Once your qualifying bet is settled, you’ll receive a £10 Free Bet for Bet Builder and 25 Free Spins for Big Bass Splash.

⚽ BetVictor – Next Pope to Replace Francis I

BetVictor’s offer is for new players who bet at least £10 – they will be rewarded with £30 in free bets!

Opt in and place a £10 or more bet on any football market with minimum odds of 1/1 within 7 days. Cash-out bets are not eligible. Once your qualifying bet is settled, you’ll receive £30 in Free Football Bets, which must be used within 7 days. Full terms and conditions apply.

Betting Markets Heat Up in the UK

The next pope betting odds have caught the attention of bettors from the UK and internationally. Platforms like BetVictor and bet365 have seen millions wagered on who will be the next pontiff.

The process, however, is far from straightforward. With the cardinals cut off from the outside world as they gather in the Sistine Chapel, predicting the outcome is anything but easy. The odds on next pope reflect the global uncertainty, and it’s clear that the UK’s spike in betting is mirroring the international interest.

Top 5 Contenders: Betting Favourites for the Papacy

Here are the top contenders for the next pope, according to the odds at bet365:

Luis Antonio Tagle and Pietro Parolin are currently the two leading candidates for the papacy.

At 70, Parolin, an Italian, continues to lead as the favourite. The Vatican Secretary of State’s diplomatic experience and close ties with Pope Francis make him a steady bet for many.

Meanwhile, Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, remains a strong contender due to his progressive views and global appeal. Dubbed as the “Asian Francis,” his odds of 7/2 reflect his widespread popularity, not just in the UK but across the globe.
Other noteworthy candidates include Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Peter Turkson, all of whom are seen as strong contenders to become the 267th Pope.

Rising Stars: A Surprise for Punters

While Parolin and Tagle have maintained the top spots, a lesser-known candidate, José Tolentino, has surprised many by attracting significant betting activity. His odds surged from 40/1 to 7% of total bets in just a few days, showing that UK and international bettors are beginning to take notice of this dark horse.

Despite Tolentino’s rise in the betting markets, he still sits as a 40/1 outsider on UK platforms like bet365. However, in international markets, his odds are inching closer to those of other potential candidates.

Recent Betting Activity

• More than £21 million has been wagered globally, with Parolin leading the charge.
• Over £8 million has been wagered on some US platforms, where Parolin and Tagle are also the top favourites.
• In the UK, platforms like bet365 and Paddy Power have seen millions bet on Parolin, with Tagle following closely behind. The public’s keen interest is reflected in the significant market volume.

Why Are the Odds So Unpredictable?

Unlike typical political elections, betting on the next pope is incredibly difficult due to the complexity of the conclave process. With a diverse group of cardinals representing a wide range of global perspectives, betting is challenging for even the most seasoned experts.

This conclave is the largest and most geographically diverse ever, with fewer than half of the cardinals being European. This global spread opens up the possibility for the election of the first African pope in over 1,500 years, adding another layer of unpredictability.

The Process: How the Conclave Works

The conclave is a highly secretive process, which means bettors can only speculate on the outcome. Here’s a quick rundown of how it works:

• The cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel and are cut off from the outside world.
• Voting begins with one ballot per day, and further ballots are held if no one achieves the required two-thirds majority.
• Black smoke means voting continues; white smoke means a pope has been elected.

💡 Quick Fact: The longest conclave in history lasted nearly three years, while the shortest conclave took just one day in 1978 when Pope John Paul I was elected.

A Rich History of Papal Betting

Betting on papal conclaves is not a modern trend. During the Renaissance, gambling on Papal politics was widespread, with Romans betting on everything from the naming of cardinals to the duration of papal reigns. This practice served both an entertainment and economic purpose, as the Pope’s decisions as the leader of the Papal States had massive political consequences.

An entire ecosystem of newsletters, information trading, and rumor mongering emerged in response to the large sums being gambled. However, the practice became problematic for the Vatican. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV issued the Cogit Nos bull, which punished gambling on new cardinals, papal durations, and conclave outcomes with excommunication. Despite these efforts, betting markets roared back after the Papal States lost most of their territory in 1870, and in 1918, Cogit Nos was officially overturned, lifting the excommunication threat.

The first UK betting odds on the conclave appeared in 1978, marking a new era in papal betting. Since then, betting on the papacy has become a global spectacle, with UK bettors participating alongside an international crowd.